ADAM R. BROWN
University of California, San Diego
GARY C. JACOBSON
University of California, San Diego
Party, Performance,
and Strategic Politicians: The Dynamics of Elections for Senator and Governor
in 2006
In this article, we analyze a unique set of state-level monthly survey data covering
the eighteen months preceding the 2006 election to estimate (1) the relative effects
of national and local conditions on the strength of challenges to incumbent senators
and governors and (2) the effects of these challenges on incumbent popularity and,
ultimately, vote shares. The analysis confirms several of the basic components of the
theory that the strategic behavior of candidates and campaign contributors amplifies
the effects of local and national conditions on election results, thereby enhancing
electoral accountability. But it also uncovers a striking difference between the two
offices. Even taking the strongly pro-Democratic national climate into account, the
election context had a strong tendency to reduce the approval ratings of Senators,
while it had an equally strong tendency to increase the approval ratings of governors.
We speculate as to what might account for this difference.
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